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The Bitcoin Cash Difficulty Adjustment Algorithm is being gamed heavily: Proof, and solution (API)
ASICseer mines BCH exclusively with its development fee. In preparation for the BCH halving, we built out an ability to switch between BCH and BTC mining (ultimately, our company must behave profitably). We wanted to go back to BCH mining, but it seemed that BCH profitability was reduced despite supposedly having equalized between the two chains. I started doing some investigation. I bought coinwarz API access and started logging BCH difficulty, trying to get some real data in the hopes of building out a switching algorithm for internal use. I figured that I'd take the median value of the last 24 hours. If difficulty was below that value, we'd mine BCH. If difficulty was above that value, we'd mine BTC. A few things came to light:
I found conclusive proof that the DAA is being gamed.
I realized the immediate solution to this problem.
This screenshot shows that, anytime the difficulty drops to around 60-70% of the median difficulty value over the past day, pools that have both BTC and BCH endpoints ("the cartel") end up finding a disproportionate amount of blocks (as high as 25 blocks per hour) instead of the expected amount of six blocks per hour. In fact, this cartel waits until the lowest possible BCH difficulty to do that. So, I began to think: "How can we, as honest miners, prevent this occurrence?" With this question in mind, I built out bchdiff, a JSON API that samples BCH difficulty over the last 24 hours and presents the data in an easily-digestible manner. The trigger for is_bch_diff_low is set to return yes when current_divided_by_median is < 0.98 (98%). With this API, you can mine BCH whenever the difficulty starts to recede. With enough people and enough hashrate, use of this API would prevent crazy oscillations, and would remove the profit motive for this pool cartel. The difficulty would never drop to 70% of its median value, and the pool cartel would no longer be incentivized to bring exahashes of BTC hashrate onto the BCH chain. Please note: this is not a profit switching algorithm, it is a difficulty switching algorithm. Use of this API will increase your net amount of mined coins/time and will stabilize the BCH chain as a side effect. Profitability never figures into the equation. Finally, and this must be said: If you feel that you're "abandoning" BCH or something equally frivolous, you should not feel that way. I expect you to buy BCH with the BTC that you mine. Here is an example (with caching) for instructions on how to use this API. This example showcases the ASICseer Remote Config File system, but you don't need ASICseer to use this API. Basically, you would need to specify your BCH and BTC pool endpoints and switch between them depending on the value of is_bch_diff_low (you can also do your own math if 98% of median is not to your liking). If you are experienced with either solo mining or running a pool, this should be relatively easy to implement. EDIT To everyone recommending an algorithm switch, please stop. That is not a solution. In 2018, I penned a response to the malicious progPOW attack against Ethereum, and nothing has changed since then: https://medium.com/@alex_6580/disclosure-my-name-is-alexander-levin-jr-president-of-gpushack-com-60e5543ef6ef Anyone recommending an algorithm switch is naive at best, and malicious at worst. The only thing an algorithm switch will do is incentivize a gigantic conflict of interest and ultimately a full capture of the BCH developers by hardware manufacturers (one, or many). Hardware manufacturers, either covertly or overtly, will simply pay developers huge sums of money to implement their algorithm of choice, and potentially even add a backdoor for them. If anyone thinks that it is impossible for open source software to have backdoors, one was just found for ProgPoW last month (after 2 years of speculating that it might).
Antes de qualquer coisa gostaria de fazer um ‘disclaimer’ sobre esse post:
Não estou aqui para fazer aquele marketing “Olhe como em apenas 5 passos você pode ficar muito rico!!”. Eu sou extremamente novo nesse mercado de Criptomoedas e aprendi tanta coisa nova e legal e gostaria de compartilhar meu conhecimento, tirar duvidas e quem sabe trazer novas pessoas nesse novo mundo.
Nesses últimos tempos vários posts sobre Bitcoin e Altcoins estão aparecendo aqui no /Brasil e muita gente discute sobre o assunto. Alguns extremamente céticos, uns curiosos e outros que já conhecem um pouquinho do assunto. Eu tentei dar um help pro pessoal que fez perguntas nos outros posts e alguns se juntaram ao grupo que organizei sobre Criptomoedas no Discord.
Não quero trazer também o “invista até não poder mais”. Esse mercado de criptomoedas é extremamente volátil e você pode sim perder dinheiro com isso. Nunca invista o que não pode perder.
Quero iniciar comentando sobre algo que muitos céticos usam:
“Bitcoin é uma bolha, ela vai estourar e você vai perder tudo.”
A ideia central de Criptomoedas é ser um sistema descentralizado de qualquer banco, empresa e governo, ser seguro, open-source, totalmente criptografado, que é apoiado pela matemática implementada. Toda a história da moeda deve ser aberta ao público e você pode ver toda e qualquer transação feita na rede. Essas transações precisam ser processadas por máquinas que confirmam que essa transação não é um double-spending ou alguém querendo criar moedas “out of thin air”. Se alguém quiser hackear o sistema ele vai precisar quebrar toda a Blockchain da moeda (explicação mais abaixo).
Blockchain (cadeia de blocos) é todo o registro de tudo que aconteceu com a criptomoeda. Cada novo bloco é ligado ao ultimo bloco existente. Nenhum dado subsequente pode ser alterado sem que todos os outros blocos sejam alterados. Fazendo assim a criptomoeda em questão super segura. Blockchain é estudada para aplicações de gerenciamento de identidade, registro médico, prova de documentos, etc.
Você pode fazer uma transferência pequena de alguns trocados até com centenas de milhares Reais para qualquer lugar do mundo. Imagine você aqui no Brasil tem um parente lá na Coréia do Sul. Você quer mandar R$3000,00 para o parente. Para isso você precisa ir até o seu banco, solicitar uma transferência de alto valor, pagar todas as taxas do banco, do seu governo, talvez até do governo do país que será enviado, esperar até a data estipulada para o dinheiro chegar ao seu parente (a partir do dia do envio+2). Faça a pesquisa, você pode pagar muito alto por isso.
Agora leve em consideração o Bitcoin. Mesmo com uma taxa alta nesses últimos tempos (da ultima vez eu paguei R$12,00), imagine você mandar esses mesmos R$3000,00. Só que a transação é feita em até 60 minutos. Você manda a ordem de transferência da sua carteira até a carteira do seu parente, essa transferência de Bitcoin é registrada, então processada pelos mineradores e depois de um tempo o Bitcoin é validado na carteira do seu parente. Depois disso ele pode já usar os Bitcoin no mesmo dia ou ir até um caixa eletrônico de Bitcoin e sacar em dinheiro ou até trocar por outras moedas ou por dinheiro em Exchanges.
Fora Bitcoin, nós temos centenas de outras criptomoedas. Várias são muito interessantes, como: Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Vertcoin. Outras são simplesmente enganações usadas para roubar dinheiro de quem investe nas criptomoedas. Infelizmente existem coisas ruins como essa em qualquer lugar do mundo. Sugiro também uma pesquisa sobre cada criptomoeda. Coinmarketcap é um site legal para você iniciar sua pesquisa nas moedas de maior valor, volume, tecnologia, etc.
A mineração consiste em usar o recurso de processamento do seu computador para procurar e resolver blocos. Quando isso acontece uma recompensa é distribuída para todos os mineradores envolvidos na mineração. Você pode minerar sozinho (o que hoje é impossível para alguém normal) ou pode entrar em uma Mining Pool.
Recentemente comecei a minerar uma criptomoeda chamada Vertcoin. Não é necessário muito conhecimento em como funciona a mineração. Basta ter um computador com placa de vídeo legal (a partir de uma gtx 1060 é legal), baixar um programa chamado One-Click Miner (OCM), arranjar uma carteira da moeda (interessante a Electrum Vertcoin Wallet), apontar seu minerador para aquela carteira, selecionar uma Pool de mineração e clicar Start.
Na mineração de Vertcoin você usa o poder de processamento da sua GPU para procurar blocos na rede junto com vários outros mineradores. Quando um bloco é encontrado você é recompensado pelo tempo que você esta minerando. Quanto mais tempo estiver minerando, melhor. Mas até um limite claro.
Não vou dizer que vale a pena você minerar porque existem muitas variáveis para isso. Para mim esta valendo a pena. Com uma GTX 1080 consigo pagar o gasto extra de conta de luz e lucrar Vertcoins. Recomendo fazer o calculo e ver se vale a pena.
A ideia central que estou levando para minerar Vertcoin é que devido a sua história, seus desenvolvedores, resistência à ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuits) e sua transparência com a comunidade ela será adotada pelo mercado. Seu valor subiu de US$0,04 em Janeiro de 2017 para hoje no preço de US$5,4. Outra coisa legal é que o Vertcoin usa algoritmo criado por brasileiros, chamada Lyra2!
Se você, leitor, tiver interesse em minerar ou discutir mais sobre moedas e conhecer mais, eu vou sugerir entrar no Discord que criei exatamente para isso: https://discord.gg/aWfV2Q5. Somos um grupo pequeno, mas o pessoal lá é super amigável e me trouxeram muito conhecimento novo. Temos desde iniciantes até alguns veteranos no assunto. Temos uma Pool de mineração de Vertcoin (Veja aqui) também se alguém se interessar.
Esse mundo de Cryptocurrencies é muito novo, estranho, inovador e interessante. Aprendi muita coisa e nem estou a tanto tempo assim aprendendo. Tenho comprado, vendido, minerado e guardado várias moedas diferentes. Tenho lucrado uma grana interessante que não teria vindo caso continuasse igual meus amigos que dizem não ter dinheiro pra investir nisso, mas saem todo final de semana com amigos/namorada e gastam 50, 100, 200 reais. Deixasse de sair 1 fim de semana por mês e compra uma moeda “segura” como Litecoin ou Ethereum. Da um lucro legal em uns 10 anos caso for atento, trocar por Real quando necessário ou mudar pra outra moeda.
Tem muita coisa que ainda quero falar, mas não quero deixar esse texto mais extenso do que esta. Por isso, peço a você que está lendo para deixar seus comentários, a favor ou contra, que vou tentar responder, aprender coisas novas, tirar dúvidas, fazer perguntas também e ter discussões saudáveis.
Recently flashed and oc/uv my cards, the hash rate is good and stable, 0 memory errors but my shares on nanopool has dropped a lot Any ideas? Is there a problem with nanopool that anyone else is experiencing? https://imgur.com/a/tZksL Edit: might be overpowering the wall outlet or overpowering my dual psus
I've noticed that coinwarz and etherscan have ETH difficulty barely moving over the last week after a constant daily increase for about 2-3 months. https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/ethereum-difficulty-chart or https://etherscan.io/chart/difficulty Has the GPU shortage finally caught up with the difficulty, and close-to-zero new GPUs are mining? A similar chart pattern occurred in October when the difficulty hit the same 3000T mark, and then the-powers-that-be halved the difficulty and the reward. Is there something special at 3000T difficulty that prevents difficulty from rising much higher? I'm happy if it stops growing but I find it an odd coincidence that its the same value as the October difficulty/reward change. Any ideas what is happening?
Clearing up some confusion about cryptocurrencies, mining and when prices will go down.
I spend my last 6 months in a lot of cryptocurrency Reddits and informed myself about the topic. I read a lot of misinformation in the non crypto Reddits every day and because of that I am making this post to clear some things up and explain everything. Sorry for the wall of text, there will be a tldr; at the end
How do mining profits work?
The Ethereum network pays out people who mine for them in Ethereum. The total daily amount of Ethereum giving out is more or less constant for now which means that if only a single person mines he gets everything, if a million person mine with the same hash power behind them everyone gets 1/1,000,000 of the reward, the reward itself does NOT increase, only the price of the ETH can increase. Normally people would buy more GPUs until they reach a point of only a small profit compared to the energy costs and it would a reach a point of balance between total network hashrate and profit in USD (like it was in the last 3-4 years). The problem is that the price spiked multiple times way too fast and GPU manufacturing can't keep up which causes GPU prices to spike and delays this point of balance which results in MASSIVE profits for everyone who mines because the hashing power "supply" is capped. We are talking about 100$ a month with a SINGLE RX 480 right now (80$+ with power cost included).
When will it stop?
Actually quite soon (yay). This is sadly a truth that not many miners know of (not to mention some are delusional... you will find them in the comments) and very few people think about. Even the popular Youtube channels have no idea about this. Before I come to the end of GPU mining first there are some numbers.
How many GPUs are out there and how much are the total profits?
The current network hashrate is about 191TH/s and a total daily reward paid of 31,239,969$ in the last 24 hours. Because a single RX 480 gets about 28MH/s (pretty much average), we have about 6,821,428 GPUs mining ONLY Ethereum right now. If you every wondered how much money you need for a global GPU shortage the answer is about 30 million dollar daily.
Can you finally tell us when and how it stops? I want to play pubg!
Ok ok... the thing is the Ethereum network doesn't need your GPU power. It only uses it as a spam filter to make it harder to manipulate the network. You would need over 50% of the total hashrate to reliably fake transactions, think of it as a giant google captcha. You can easily replace that captcha with another one and this is exactly what Ethereum does in the near future. Proof of stake means instead of wasting GPU power you just stake your Ethereum and the more of your Ethereum you invest the more voting rights and rewards you get. If you are caught trying to cheat your whole money gets confiscated and donated to everyone else depending on their voting rights. Full proof of stake will probably be implemented late 2018 but just to be fair it already got delayed multiple times so there is no clear 100% date for it yet.
So... Ethereum fires all the miners, wont miners just mine something else?
This is where the misconception starts. There is actually a second point of balance in all of this. All cryptocurrencies will always divide all the hashing power between them until they all reach about the same profit (people always switch to what gives the most profit). It may seem like there are a lot of profitable cryptocurrencies to mine but that is actually an illusion. Many of the smaller coins would be unprofitable after a few thousand GPUs because their total $ reward giving out daily is pretty small. The thing is nobody mines something that gives less profit so they switch. To sum it up Ethereum is basically the minimum payment job and everyone who goes below that wont find anyone willing to do the job until they get more profitable than Ethereum. Now what happens if 6.8 MILLION RX 480 are jobless after a single update? They will all start mining something else. The problem is Ethereum has a GIANT majority in hashrate and all other mineable cryptocurrencies combined can't be profitable after Ethereum switches even if their prices spike by 10x.
It can't be that bad...
OH HELL YEAH IT IS THAT BAD! Every heard of Monero? It is the cryptocurrency that caused the RX Vega shortage. Any idea on how much daily rewards they give out? A giant 1,504,249$ in the last 24 hours. Yes that is 20.7 times less and we are talking about the second biggest mineable coin out there. As soon as Ethereum fires all the miners everything will collapse and profit will turn NEGATIVE for a while unless you have free power. Q4 2018 is the end of mining for probably ever. Because the Ethereum code is open source and everyone can use it there will most likely be more coins that follow proof of stake after that (there already are some that already have it) so mining will most likely never come back.
Why the switch to proof of stake?
There are many benefits. It consumes A LOT less power, it is most likely faster and people who hodl Ethereum get more Ethereum for just having it. Free interest rate hype! But the most important thing about this is that miners control the currency and every update to it. Sadly they don't have the same interests as people who want the crypto to succeed and improve. For example Bitcoin's block size is kept at 1mb even though increasing it was always the plan since 2009. Why? It's very simple. You can only fit X amount of transactions in 1mb and if it gets more than that only people who pay more get their transactions in faster which means more fews are being paid to the miners. While they make a fortune the currency suffers with spikes to 50$ for a SINGLE transaction (currently it's 18$). If the power goes to the ones having the currency they are directly interested in the well being of the currency which is better for everyone.
So... what does all of this actually mean?
We will get the biggest GPU mass sell off in the history of the technology itself. I wouldn't be surprised to find a RX 480 for 100$ in December. Miners already made the price of the GPU back multiple times, they don't care about the price if they get at least something. This will be a GREAT time for buying GPUs. It already happened once in 2013? when ASIC miners got introduced for Bitcoin mining and all R9 290(x) got dumped on the market because they went from awesome miners to completely useless overnight. This time will be much bigger though because of the sheer amount of GPUs used for mining.
AMD's and Nvidia's part in this
AMD did ramp up production last time with the r9 290(x) and got completely rekt. They couldn't sell the GPUs anymore and the used r9 290(x) were way too cheap to compete with. This time they are smarter and they just make as much as they can without investing too much while basically selling everything they produce for almost a whole year. Nvidia is about the same right now, they are just making bank without risking much. If you ever wondered why the 1070ti exists, it is basically a mining only GPU. The 1080 is horrible for Ethereum mining because of GDDR5X timings but the 1070ti has the same GPU power with GDDR5 non x. They only made this for more profit when selling to miners.... yet no reviewer called them out for this to my knowledge.
GPU prices will crash hard and the used market will have laughable low prices. These GPUs actually run undervolted, underclocked and at a low temperature the whole time because the bottleneck is the memory speed which means they are in EXCELLENT condition. Maybe their BIOS got flashed for better memory timing but you can just switch to the second BIOS or flash it back to normals. These will the GREAT to buy. Note that r9 290(x) and 390(x) GPUs should be avoided because they have such an overkill memory setup that their GPU core is the bottleneck (-> overclocked, overvolted and run at 90c+).
How will Nvidia react?
Well they will have a problem. Nobody will buy a 1180 if they can get a GTX 1080 for 200$ compared to something like 600$. Especially if Nvidia releases the 1180 while mining is still a thing. I guess they will wait with the 1180 or release a 1280 shortly after mining died with a really competitive price (if AMD can't compete they will just compete with themself...). Just think of the GTX 970 which got released with a 299$ MSRP and got actually sold at that price!
This got way longer than expected... well I hope you learned something. Just comment if you want to correct something or have a question. Most of these are assumptions based on thinking so none of this has to happen but is in my opinion very likely to happen. tldr; Because Ethereum has almost all of the GPU power behind it and will fire all the miners in around Q4 2018 with the switch to proof of stake there will be a huge excess of GPU power and prices will crash hard. edit: if you only care about numbers and facts and want a better distinction between assumptions and facts read my other comment https://www.reddit.com/pcmasterrace/comments/7rqkmo/clearing_up_some_confusion_about_cryptocurrencies/dsyzg6b/
My rig has been running for a few months now but this month the performance is not that great. I noticed that I have share accepted time going up to 313, 375, 484, 500, and even 875. The normal range I previously had was 140-170. Does anyone know what's going on? I am using claymore on nanopool. Windows 10 with 9 RX580 GPUs.
Hey there everyone. So, i was mining on Nanopool since the beginning of my mining journey(end of February) and everything was fine until a few days ago. My earning went down hard(ETH wise ofc) so i switched to Ethermine 2 days ago. Higher earning than Nanopool even though the actual hashrate is lower but still nowhere close what i should earn with the hashrate i have which is 374mh/s. According to calculators(whattomine AND coinwarz) i should earn around 0.9ETH per month(Whattomine = 0.87ETH, Coinwarz = 0.898ETH) and it was higher yesterday(around 0.9-0.92ETH). So, what is going on ? Are the calculators became useless with wrong data all of a sudden or something going on with the Ethereum Network and/or pools ? I've never encountered anything like this before, i was always earning the same or +-0.05ETH per month with what Whattomine reported according to my hashrate but now all of a sudden i'm earning 0.75-0.77ETH per month with the same hashrate. Btw everything else is fine/same(cards, overclock, no memory errors, internet connection is the same, heat is the same,...etc.). Can anyone elaborate on the situation ? Maybe i'm missing something out ?
What's happening with the ETH payouts, they suddenly skyrocketed over the last few days. Block Difficulty and Network Hash seem to be decreasing on etherscan. People quitting mining? Something else? I'm still trying to decide if I want to give ETH another try. Please, feel free to use my code, I'm close to level 4: YuzK1b Peace
looks like at this rate, ethereum rewards are going to be halved in a bit more than a week. 100 TH added in just 3 days lol.. anyone wants to buy my incoming cards? getting 18 RX470s sapphire nitro+ and want to sell together ideally difficulty chart lmao
Now that everyone and their mom is buying Bitcoin, while others learning that ETH is acutally GPU minable, The difficulty has increased in just over the past 5 days from 1.5 to near 1.8 https://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/ethereum-difficulty-chart I saw my rewards drop from .68 beginning for month, to .63, now to .59 ETH(For 600 hash) I've been mining since June. After the whole Iceage, i was ready to recover now this happens. Price is high, yes, but I think we can all agree ETH/Bitcoin are in bubbles. I barely got to make much ETH because of the whole IceAge fisaco followed by this :( I'm looking for other coins to mine like ZEC or ETC, but that also means the added hassle of exchanging it to something coinbase will cash out to Fiat.
Can someone please help me understand the relationship between difficulty and hashrate across networks please? I understand what hashrate and difficulty are on their own but comparing the two across networks is confusing me. I'm trying to get a grasp on the difference in network stability between BTC and ETH...using mining information from coinwarz.com the BTC hashrate is 23,209 Petahashes/second and the ETH hashrate is 244 terahashes/second. This breaks down to BTC having 94000 more hashes/second than ETH which seems insane but that's what thew numbers say. What confuses me is the difference in difficulty between the two. Ethereum has a 1000x higher difficulty than Bitcoin? (2988867872431400 for ETH vs. 2874674234415 for BTC). I know this is somehow related to the difference in blocktimes but how? More importantly, what are the implications of this on the network stability and resistance to hostile actors? Intuition tells me Bitcoin is not 94,000 times more secure than Ethereum even though thats the comparative difference in hashes/second. Vice versa that Ethereum is not 1000x more difficult to mine than Bitcoin. Help meh. Once again, I'm curious to know the implications of these numbers in relation to resistance against hostile actors. Thanks.
CoinWarz remarks that due to the successful start of the DAO’s campaign, the price of ether is constantly growing, at the moment making the currency mining 3 times more profitable than that of bitcoin. The DAO platform was developed by German company Slock.it and aims to finance Ethereum-based projects at an early stage of development. Find out what your expected return is depending on your hash rate and electricity cost. Find out if it's profitable to mine Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, DASH or Monero. Do you think you've got what it takes to join the tough world of cryptocurrency mining? Based the mining hardware inputs provided, 0.02571334 Ethereum can be mined per day with a Ethereum mining hashrate of 500.00 MH/s, a block reward of 2 ETH, and a Ethereum difficulty of 3,360,123,869,274,690.00. After deducting mining power costs and mining fees, the final daily Ethereum mining profit is $6.45 Ethereum to USD. The Ethereum difficulty chart provides the current Ethereum difficulty (ETH diff) target as well as a historical data graph visualizing Ethereum mining difficulty chart values with ETH difficulty adjustments (both increases and decreases) defaulted to today with timeline options of 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and all time The New CoinWarz Ether Mining Profitability Calculator. Raising over $140 million USD, CoinWarz says that the DAO crowdfunding project “is a landmark in the history of the Ethereum protocol,” and they hope to aid miners in taking advantage of the newfound Ether mining profitability.
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